Global Risks Report 2026: The Era of “Poly-Crisis” and Economic Warfare

Davos / Amsterdam – The world is no longer just “unstable”; it is entering a structural fracture. That is the grim conclusion of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2026 Global Risks Report. Based on the insights of over 1,400 risk experts, policymakers, and industry leaders, the report paints a picture of a global order tearing at the seams.

For a trading nation like the Netherlands, the warnings are particularly stark: the era of free trade is ending, replaced by “weaponized economics,” while Artificial Intelligence prepares to reshape the battlefield.

Table of Contents

• The End of Cooperation: Economic Warfare
• Why the Netherlands is Vulnerable
• The Twin Tech Threats: AI & Quantum
• Countdown to “Q-Day”: The Encryption Crisis
• Climate: The Silent background Noise
• Key Takeaways
• Dutch Learning Corner
• Community CTA

The End of Cooperation: Economic Warfare

For decades, the global mantra was “interdependence prevents war.” The theory was that if countries traded with each other, they wouldn’t fight. The 2026 report suggests this logic is dead.

Approximately 20% of experts predict a sharp escalation in global economic conflicts this year. We are seeing a shift towards:

• Protectionism: “Me First” policies where nations hoard resources.
• Sanctions: Using financial systems as weapons of war.
• Supply Chain Decoupling: Breaking established trade routes to hurt rivals.

The report warns that this “geoeconomic confrontation” will lower global growth and increase poverty, creating a vicious cycle of instability.

Why the Netherlands is Vulnerable

Why should a Dutch expat care? Because the Netherlands is the “canary in the coal mine.”

Henk Volberda, Professor of Strategy and Innovation at the University of Amsterdam and a key contributor to the report, sounds the alarm for open economies.

“The Netherlands earns its money through open borders and free trade,” Volberda explains. “When the world turns inward, we suffer the most.” He warns that as trade barriers rise, the cost of living in the Netherlands will spike. Essentials—from energy to food—could become significantly more expensive as the global supply chains that Dutch supermarkets rely on begin to fracture.

The Twin Tech Threats: AI & Quantum

While economists worry about trade wars, defense analysts are looking at the algorithms. The report flags Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a top-tier risk for conflict escalation.

14% of experts believe a new, major conflict involving AI could erupt soon. The concern isn’t just “Killer Robots” (autonomous weapons systems), but also:

• Disinformation Campaigns: AI generating fake news to destabilize elections.
• Cyber Warfare: Automated codes that can attack critical infrastructure (power grids, dams) faster than humans can defend them.

Volberda notes: “Future wars may be fought by unmanned systems, leading to faster escalation and harder-to-predict outcomes.”

Countdown to “Q-Day”: The Encryption Crisis

A new term entering the lexicon is “Q-Day.” This refers to the hypothetical day when Quantum Computers become powerful enough to break all current encryption standards.

The report warns that if a malicious actor (state or criminal) reaches Q-Day before the rest of the world updates its security, they could:

• Steal all global banking data.
• Decrypt state secrets.
• Hijack military communications.

The race for “Quantum-Resistant” security is now the most critical unseen battle in the tech world.

Climate: The Silent background Noise

Amidst the noise of war and trade, the Climate Crisis remains the most severe long-term threat.

Experts warn that we are approaching “irreversible tipping points.” The 2026 report highlights a new vulnerability: Corporate Fragility. Many multinational companies are unprepared for the physical shocks of climate change (e.g., floods destroying factories) or the transition shocks (green regulations). A collapse of a major insurance or food company due to climate factors could trigger a domino effect in the global economy.

Key Takeaways

• Economic War: The era of globalization is retreating; protectionism is rising.
• Dutch Risk: As a trading hub, the Netherlands is uniquely exposed to trade barriers.
• AI Conflict: Autonomous weapons and cyber-attacks increase the risk of accidental war.
• Q-Day: The threat of Quantum computing breaking global encryption is looming.

Dutch Learning Corner

Source / Report: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2026 & University of Amsterdam (Henk Volberda)