THE HAGUE – October 6, 2026 | The Dutch Daily
Dutch house prices 2027: on 1 October 2026 ABN AMRO published its latest Housing Market Monitor (Woningmarktmonitor). The bank now expects Dutch house prices to rise 3.8% in 2026 (raised from 3%) and only 2.5% in 2027 (cut from 4%). It also expects the number of homes sold to fall by 5.5% in 2027. The main reason: mortgage rates are likely to stay higher for longer. Even so, the bank does not currently expect house prices to fall, because the housing shortage remains large.
Key facts
- Dutch house prices: +3.8% in 2026 (previous forecast +3%); +2.5% in 2027 (previous forecast +4%).
- Home sales: −0.5% in 2026 (previously −3%); −5.5% in 2027 (previously −4%).
- Main driver of the slowdown: mortgage rates stay higher for longer; the bank expects a decline only in the second half of 2027.
- Regions: Groningen +7.9% in Q2 2026 year on year; national average +4.2%; Amsterdam only +0.8%.
- First-time buyers 2027: the transfer tax exemption threshold is set to rise from €555,000 to €615,000.
- These are forecasts, not certainties.
In this guide
- 1. The forecast in numbers
- 2. What prices and sales look like now
- 3. Why mortgage rates matter
- 4. Regional differences: Amsterdam vs Groningen
- 5. Why prices are not expected to fall
- 6. Budget Day measures
- 7. What it means for buyers, sellers and renters
- 8. Frequently asked questions
- 🇳🇱 Dutch Corner
- Sources
Dutch house prices: the forecast in numbers
| Previous forecast | New forecast (1 Oct 2026) | |
|---|---|---|
| House prices 2026 | +3% | +3.8% |
| House prices 2027 | +4% | +2.5% |
| Home sales 2026 | −3% | −0.5% |
| Home sales 2027 | −4% | −5.5% |
ABN AMRO says the Dutch housing market is performing better than expected this year, which is why it raised its 2026 forecast. For 2027, however, it expects a “noticeably sharper slowdown”. Investors are selling fewer homes, which is one reason for the lower expected number of sales in 2027.
What prices and sales look like now
According to the Woningmarktmonitor, Dutch house prices were rising more slowly: homes were 3.3% more expensive in August 2026 than a year earlier, the smallest increase since early 2024. Compared with July, prices fell 0.1%. Prices still rose more strongly than the bank had expected in the first half of 2026, which is why it raised its full-year forecast.
Up to and including August about 156,000 homes were sold, 4% more than in the same period last year. In August itself, sales fell: 18,900 homes were sold, 3% fewer than a year earlier.
Why mortgage rates matter
The bank says the European Central Bank raised its interest rate to 2.5% and expects two more increases, which could bring the ECB rate to 3%. As a result, mortgage rates are likely to stay high for longer; ABN AMRO expects a decline only in the second half of 2027. With higher rates, buyers can borrow less, so demand for homes falls.
Many buyers have almost no room left to borrow more: the average first-time buyer already borrows almost 95% of the maximum loan amount. Incomes are also growing more slowly: disposable income, corrected for rising prices, rose by 0.7% in the second quarter. That means income growth now adds less extra demand than before.
Regional differences: Amsterdam vs Groningen
Behind the national averages are large regional differences. Price growth in the Randstad is slowing, with Amsterdam leading the slowdown, while Groningen, Drenthe and Gelderland have the strongest growth and lift the national average.
| Area | Price change, Q2 2026 vs a year earlier |
|---|---|
| Netherlands (average) | +4.2% |
| Groningen | +7.9% |
| Amsterdam | +0.8% |
The bank notes that, according to the NVM (the real-estate agents’ association), prices in Amsterdam even fell slightly, and the supply of homes there was more than a quarter larger. ABN AMRO regards Amsterdam as a barometer for the wider market: the cooling now visible in the capital could be an early sign of how the slowdown may develop elsewhere.
Why Dutch house prices are not expected to fall
The housing shortage is substantial. Last year 69,189 homes were added, so the target of 100,000 new homes per year was not met, and construction is lagging again this year. At the same time higher rates slow demand. The market therefore cools, but because of the large shortage ABN AMRO does not expect a sharp price fall. In the words of its senior housing market economist Mike Langen, affordability “remains under pressure”, but the housing market “remains robust”.
Budget Day measures
ABN AMRO expects the measures presented on Budget Day to have only a limited short-term impact on the housing market. Most proposed policies focus on investors and the rental sector, while measures affecting homebuyers are likely to have both positive and negative effects:
- The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) expects purchasing power to decline, particularly among higher-income households.
- The maximum rate at which mortgage interest can be deducted from taxable income will increase.
- The transfer tax exemption for first-time buyers will be expanded in 2027: the threshold rises from €555,000 to €615,000.
- The National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) limit is expected to increase.
According to Langen, first-time buyers stand to benefit most, as transaction costs will fall and more homes will qualify for the exemption.
What it means for buyers, sellers and renters
- Buyers: the forecast for Dutch house prices is slower price growth, not cheaper homes. Higher rates reduce how much you can borrow. Check your own maximum mortgage with a lender or adviser before you bid.
- First-time buyers: the transfer tax exemption threshold of €615,000 and a higher NHG limit are the measures to watch in 2027; check the final rules when they are confirmed.
- Sellers: sales are expected to fall in 2027, and the regional picture matters: Amsterdam is cooling faster than the north and east.
- Renters: most Budget Day policies focus on investors and the rental sector; see our guide on rent increases 2026–2027.
These are forecasts by one bank, not certainties. Our housing market guide explains prices and the buying process.
Frequently asked questions
Will Dutch house prices fall in 2027?
ABN AMRO does not currently expect that. It forecasts +2.5% in 2027, down from +4%.
Why is the market cooling?
Mainly because mortgage rates are likely to stay higher for longer: the bank expects the ECB to raise rates twice more, and a decline in mortgage rates only in the second half of 2027.
Which regions are seeing Dutch house prices grow fastest?
Groningen, Drenthe and Gelderland. In Q2 2026 Groningen saw +7.9% against +4.2% nationally.
What is happening in Amsterdam?
Prices in Q2 were only 0.8% higher than a year earlier, and according to NVM they even fell slightly. ABN AMRO treats the capital as a barometer for the wider market.
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is ABN AMRO’s own forecast in its Woningmarktmonitor. Other institutions may differ.
🇳🇱 Dutch Corner
| Dutch | Meaning |
|---|---|
| De woningmarkt | Housing market |
| De huizenprijzen | House prices |
| De hypotheekrente | Mortgage interest rate |
| De rente | Interest rate |
| De verwachting | Forecast, expectation |
| De koper | Buyer |
| De starter | First-time buyer |
| Het woningtekort | Housing shortage |
| De overdrachtsbelasting | Transfer tax |
| Afkoelen | To cool down |
| De transacties | Transactions, sales |
Sources
- ABN AMRO press release, 1 October 2026: Housing market stronger in 2026; sharper slowdown expected in 2027 (forecasts, regions, Budget Day measures, quotes)
- ABN AMRO Woningmarktmonitor oktober 2026 (August prices, sales, income, ECB and mortgage rates, shortage)
More on The Dutch Daily: our housing market guide · rent increase 2026–2027
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